Abductive reasoning

See also the Wikipedia entry for abduction and other keywords)

An idea by Charles Pierce

Charles Pierce (1839-1913) is credited with the invention of this form of logic. One form of it; his theory of probable inference (1883) is exemplified in Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's Sherlock Holmes tales, in which the sleuth's interest in a mysterious fact leads him to a hypothesis that explains the larger nature of what was seen and, thus, helps to uncover new evidence. Abduction differs from the older modes of logic:

Deduction

At a logical level, deductive reasoning is the process of inferring a fact if it can be shown to derive from several known factors. E.g. where A and B are observed as the existing conditions and, after some deductive analysis and proof, C is reliably concluded to be the product of these conditions.

Induction

Induction is a reasoning method that draws a general principle from considering many observations. However, it is a less certain than deduction because it depends on the probability that the evidence cited happens to represent what is generally the case. Induction includes generalisation, especially when based on statistical data or arguments drawn from analogy.

Abduction

As a type of inference, abduction is even less certain than induction. Charles Peirce describes it thus: "A surprising fact, C, is observed. But if a proposition, A, were true, C would be a matter of course. Hence, there is a reason to suspect that A is true." In this sense, the thought process used for abduction may be more imaginative in the sense that it requires suppositional information that exists outside the problem space. However, as Rowe points out, "in the case of ill-defined and wicked problems, abduction is the rule rather than the exception."''

Further Thoughts

Thomas Bayes is credited with a similar form of inference that uses statistics to reverse the usual path from data to evidence-based model.
Rowe, P. G. "Design Thinking". MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1987 p.102