Climate Change Denial
(Like many other of our glossary entries these notes are not comprehensive.)
Some Researchers
- Stephan Lewandowsky – psychologist at the University of Bristol.
- Dana Nuticelli – environmental scientist who works with Prof Lewandowsky.
- Katherine Hayhoe – atmospheric scientist (Director of Climate Science Centre, Texas Tech University)
The Status Quo
- The Fossil Fuels Lobby has a vested interest in surviving as an industry.
- Energy subsidies by governments keep fossil fuels prices artificially low.
- Fossil fuels received $550 billion in subsidies compared with $120 billion for all renewables (2013).
- Ideology (n.b. it is a complex term)
- There seem to be more global warming deniers on the political right than on the left. (Why?)
- This may be exacerbated, or caused by differences in financial support from fossil fuel companies(?).
- Disinformation is a deliberate falsification of facts
- (unlike 'misinformation', which is passing on incorrect information by mistake).
- Confirmation bias is an easy thing to exploit in communication strategies.
- Many climate change ‘skeptics’ spend a lot of time on climate change denial sites
- The Precautionary Principle
- Some climate change deniers argue that the scientific consensus is only 'scaremongering'.
- But this seems to put the settling of truth claims above the need to implement the lowest-risk policies
- Precaution means defaulting to the safer options where significant harm is possible
- Conspiracy theories
- These can evolve to incorporate whatever evidence exists against them
- They can become a closed system that is unfalsifiable,
- i.e. "a matter of faith rather than proof" (Barkun, M., 2003).
- Pseudoscience probably works in a similar way.
Cognitive Factors
- Confirmation bias
- We all filter evidence through our pre-existing assumptions and beliefs (see Fig. 1)
- We tend to seek / interpret / prefer / recall information that endorses and sustains our belief system.
- The language that we use is also likely to colour what we notice and see.
- Apophenia is a type of confirmation bias
- i.e. it is the tendency to find connections and meanings in events and things that, to others, are unrelated.
- Cognitive dissonance
- The discomfort experience arising from the presence of contradictory evidence.
- This discomfort is sometimes relieved by seeking new ways to refresh the information causing the discomfort
- Alternatively, the sufferer may actively avoid the (social) situations that generate the contradictions.
- (n.b. Arthur Koestler (1964) cognitive dissonance can produce bisociation)
- Garret Hardin’s ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ theory (1968)
- The 'Commons' refers to the shared resources
- The 'Tragedy' refers to the way individuals see their impact on the commons.
- E.g. if everyone can let their sheep/goats graze on public land 'I' will calculate 'my' impact in 2 ways:
- A) this extra sheep will make a big supplement to my family's food supply.
- B) my impact on scarce food stocks will only be tiny when averaged out for the total number of neighbours.
- Hardin suggests that our brains evolved when the world was under-populated and teeming with resources
- i.e. Nature would always always recover from anything we could do to it.
- Unfortunately, we are still 'programmed' to understand our responsibility in this context.
- The Mindset of Large Hierarchies
- Around 10 thousand years ago Homo sapiens swapped hunting and gathering for farming.
- Food surpluses enabled us to grow into large trading and warring empires.
- Five thousand years later we invented unit-based money and alphabetical writing to allow this expansion
- This began to shift our thinking away from personal 'responsibility' to the bureaucratic mindset of 'accountability'
- Denialism - the avoidance of a generally accepted truth or fact
- this is generally assumed to be because it is psychologically uncomfortable (e.g. cognitive dissonance)
- In a sane person this would appear as an irrational refusal to accept empirically verifiable evidence
- Dunning-Kruger Effect
- a cognitive bias in people with low metacognitive skills to overestimate their cognitive abilities
- Belief perseverance
- maintaining a belief despite new information that firmly contradicts it.
- Emotional Reasoning
- Emotion/s play an important role in how we understand logical principles and interpreting/choosing the options implied by them.
- see Antonio Damasio
- Situated, self-managed syntax
- The backfire effect
- when new evidence challenging the believer's hypothesis actually strengthens their belief.
- tribal partisanship
- Perhaps humans are genetically pre-disposed to adopting peer beliefs(?)
- Attitude polarisation
- this may happen after the group meets to discuss the views of its members
- Group polarisation
- occurs when a group makes decisions more extreme than the initial inclination of its members
Further Reading
- Guardian 29|08|2018: "I was deluded. You can't beat fake news with science communication." Jenny Rohn
- See a brief introductory article in CleanTechnica by Michael Barnard
- Follow up on Wikipedia entries with more focused publications (e.g. Google Scholar)
- The Pew Research Centre conducts large world-wide surveys about climate change opinions.
- What's Up With That website that refutes climate change as human-induced